A repeatable process for turning evidence into investment decisions.
事実・反対仮説・確認指標を、再現可能な投資判断へ変えるための入口。
The Process｜判断の順序
- Map the regime｜環境認識 — Geopolitics, rates, policy, liquidity.
- Map the industry｜産業構造 — Value chains, bottlenecks, competitive advantage.
- Test the company｜企業検証 — Unit economics, incentives, execution, valuation.
- Write the countercase｜反対仮説 — What must be true for the thesis to fail?
- Track observables｜確認指標 — Define measurable signals before price moves.
- Size the risk｜資産配分 — Match conviction to uncertainty, horizon and downside.
Research Entrances｜研究入口
- ETF Research｜ETF研究 — Asset allocation and implementation.
- ‣ — Claims, counterarguments and falsifiers.
- ‣ — Evidence, changes and decision history.
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Rule｜原則
Separate fact, inference and opinion. A thesis without a falsifier is a story, not research.
事実・推論・意見を分ける。反証条件のない仮説は、研究ではなく物語である。
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Tokyo Brainie | Independent Investor & Market Research
市場構造・価格形成｜Market Microstructure